劇本巳訂稿, 請指教

USA Monetary Cliff政府財務支出斷漄危機 (國債as of Jun 23 1200 (About 15206+9*0))
七月份起劇本大致已擬好, 美國國債再起風雲
背景是延伸OT政策至年底, Euro crisis 也告段落. 美元相對就要走弱了. 這也支撑commodity不再
下探低点. 同時S&P500作橫向整理. US Bank sector (XLF)有機會作領頭羊. BAC是首選
Hedge Fund 在美元作空. 而在Copper強力作多. 經濟循或許也到了轉拆. 股市如我前Blog言 (七月七日是個好日子)
再來美債高点.10年殖利率回到1.68%, 与暴作点2.3%差距還遠. 但起碼市場資金不會往債市,
且走弱的美元不是好的選項, 它只是中央银行的工具. 所以研判. commodity and stock market
將有作為. 幅度有多大. 再論



Quote dated July 11 (the central bank rates and assets)

Certainly, as the chart above shows all too clearly, there is little room for Bernanke and his fellow central bank honchos to do any more with the most traditional weapon in their arsenal – interest rate levels already have hit rock bottom in the United States, Britain, the eurozone and Japan, as the blue line in the chart indicates. Meanwhile, the size of the balance sheets of these central banks has mounted steadily since the financial crisis to more than $9 trillion. Since the beginning of 2011 alone, some $2.5 trillion has been added to those balance sheets through their purchases of government bonds. How much more can they afford to do?

According to the economists polled by Reuters, the expectation is that QE3 – should it materialize – would be a slightly smaller program. The last two rounds of quantitative easing added $2.3 trillion of mortgage-related debt and Treasury securities to the Fed’s balance sheet as the central bank tried to jumpstart the economy. The median estimate was for a $550 billion QE3 program, possibly focusing on mortgage debt; the highest estimate was $750 billion.

這個Cliff往下看, 嚇死人

加稅=減少平日花費
百業不振= unemployment

政府赤字一直上升
公債10年 1.6% 世界平均 cost living  increase about 6%
negative interest rate能撑多久

printing money= cheap dollar
股价(真正value 一直貶)
commodity and gold 重回 上漲