市場的改變 New phase of the correlation

利率是2013的主題, 一如我年初所評

股市上漲導至分紅比下降, 而担心 FED一直在放空氣要結束QE且先從减少向市場買
回公債及基本放款利率往上調, 在房市,股市末失控前先把調節工作佈建一下是有其
必要. 於是公債殖利率上升. May 29 ( 10年期Yield到2.23% 以2.12%收盤)
May 30仍然步步高昇. 而SPX dividend Yield 与10-year Treasury note两個利率
交會一起

目前Yield Curve (長短期一併) 依然健康. , 投資市場(股及債市)並未形成泡沬

Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds

Most recent issues
Maturity	% yield	Change
At 5:05 PM ET Data delayed by at least 15 minutes
3-month	0.033%	0.00
6-month	0.0811%	0.0001
2-year	0.297%	0.00
5-year	0.99%	+0.0004
10-year	2.12%	-0.0001
30-year	3.27%	0.00

間題是, 如債市殖利率一直往上昇那股市往上的熱度應會減緩指數曲線會成橫

向盤整, 那先拉回一段也是必要的, 支撑在那因各個市場不同就也不一樣.

如股市加速上漲會激勵債市下跌的波動, 但債市往下趨勢也不會因股市有所改變

但FED 樂見 (緩慢), 長遠看, 投資者應先棄債市, 不應急於入股市,

 (最近Lipper :May 24報告)

For the fourth straight week, equity ETFs experienced net inflows, taking in some $3.9 billion. Their conventional mutual fund brethren took in $2.5 billion for their 20th consecutive week of net inflows, bringing the year-to-date total to +$105.0 billion.)

股市熱度与Mutual Fund 的操作將面臨考驗, 

我評

中期操作

Inverse ETF ,  iverse index ETF and inverse Bond ETF應可注意

而股市 (SPX) 拉回 target 設在1350 点 About -23%  (May 29 spx closed 1648)