股市風險

如現在才告之，股市之無常，風險之高，就有些不上道啦!

The global stock markets lost $2.3 trillion in market cap this week。Jan 08 2016



S&P 500 1,922.03
Total Put/Call 1.34
AAII % Bulls 22.2 
AAII % Bears 38.3
CRB Index 168.57
Crude Oil 32.91
Gold 1,103.40
UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,027.28
Volatility(VIX) 24.05 
Total Put/Call 1.23 


Economic data:

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.4% -50.0 basis points
• US Dollar Index 98.44 -.21%
• Yield Curve 118.0 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.11% -16.0 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.448 Trillion n/a
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.29 +5.45%
• Baltic Dry Index 445.0
• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 734.95
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.13/Metric Tonne

Follow FED

市場的反應於基本利率的动向

• 40.5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 46.0% chance at April 27 meeting

Follow Comments

以下幾位的市場分析及看法

Dan Nathan对明年的市场感到担忧

Peter Schiff 联储制造的泡沫.是美元危机，甚至主权债务危机

Jack bogle market  asset allocation in stock and bond index fund.

美元，美股，美債交互関係。下週面臨中線走勢的趋向。FED終就保住債市。股市(SPX)1970不守。難有作為。退場握住cash，等待時机，觀望為上策