dogleg yarn

Monday, February 25, 2013

市場好教材

市場分柝名嘴口中
成長股, 价值股, 投機股. 那一個才可信

Apple 自100一路往上, 至647拉回直往700. 市場說apple是成長股, 凡成長
股就有夢相隨, 上看每股可達USD1,000
夢碎了, 股价到500以下, 市場說Apple是价值型股. 應以投資長線方式
持有納入投資組合
以目前价位再下跌30% about USD340. 的可能不是沒有
因為
1. 2月份成交量 as of feb. 25 緊縮. 多空隨市浮沉, 反而多方頻頻棄守
2. 2月份RSI 步入Bearish market. 而MACD依然位於高擋
3. OBV至今無反多信号
4. 型態正在長線起跌開始
5. 原來市場所謂, 成長股, 价值型股都是操作股价幌子. 如果說
    這個市場是投機也不為過
    這個這是得看, 大趨勢, 個別股价多年歷史高低价位在那
    做多做空無法賺到银子.是 你對這個還認識不夠

    別人分拆 (包含本Blog)僅能参考, 想法子找出自巳投資股市的
    規律. 對工具 (技術指標)使用要訂出一些條件來過濾







Sunday, February 24, 2013

型態正在改變中


假突破, 真拉回
型態,
Weekly with EMA40
左高点2010 April , 中高点2011九月, 右高点2013二月
每一個高点都有+字K線
大格局 2010-2013(Weekly)是上昇旗型,
1.  應拉回<EMA40
2.  如拉回<EMA40則2950-2850下殺不出量, 小心真破底 (2750)
3.  操作Tech 股要有長空心. 裡準備
4.  RSI (FEB 22週)已轉柝 Bearish sign
5   作多則以MACD 翻多時才介入, 目前得空手
6.  台股應以USA Nasdaq 走勢作参考


停, 聽, 看

Friday, February 22, 2013

Uncle sam's watchdog and trade underdog


今日联合報, 頭條新聞
鈎島
ABE批評 中國( 搶領土 )coercion or intimidation的行為不可能改變日本目前有效
的對(鈎島)的管轄權

身為中國人
對(coercion or intimidation)脇迫与恐嚇這两個字, 真是感慨万千. 百年來的中國
只有世界上列強在中國以瓜分利益, 租界, 偽滿, 殖民台灣. 而日本發動九一八進而
Invasion攻佔上海就是想在很短時間內用coercion or intimidation讓國民政府
屈服, 可憐國弱無力反抗,列強在中國也早已分佔得利益(租界)都對曰本的Invasion
也作壁上觀. 蔣委員長也只能斷臂求生, 死守四行倉庫要戰到一兵一卒, 以博取世
界同情的輿論資助中國抵抗日本侵略. 四行倉庫之戰在各國記者的報導中. 僅是英
勇及犧生. 上海戰區的堅守成功粉碎了日本想用優勢的武力(coercion or intimidation)
叫中央政府就範. 日本進而拉大戰線攻打中央政府首都南京, 城破大屠殺有所謂"千人斬"
至今還供在日本神社.

ABE 對Washington post 記者於訪美前的內容Quote below
Financial Time 的評論也Quote below

(coercion or intimidation)两個字, 百年來的中國從末對這個世界何一個國
家用過 , 對內(包括他認為的台灣)就不一樣,當然我們心中也是不好受. 但是ABE
的日本政府這次( 鈎島 )事件, 凡是中國人, 都得想一想發生在我們身上及先人遭遇的
歷史教訓. 要讓人家敬重不受侵犯-只有明明白白表示一個立場. " 一寸也不能少 "
馬先生的共同論調符合政客制式外交. 戰爭最後的勝利取決在不在武器. 太平盛世
安逸的生活過久了. 大家都不想步上戰爭這一步, 但"千人斬 "武士魂"又復活了
你的反應不會是移民或作日本次等國民吧!!!


Financil Times
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0eef33f0-7bc9-11e2-95b9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2LddihNTK

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Japan PM Shinzo Abe to meet U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday in Washington, D.C.
  • Economic issues, US-Japan military alliance expected to be focus of talks
  • PM Abe keen to extend U.S. military partnership as China asserts power in Asia
  • Analyst: 'Japan government now hawkish, is reason for caution from U.S.'
  • Meet the difficults; the trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade bloc of which be opposed by farmer
  • the export of newly abundant shale gas to japan in order of decreasing  the cost of  fossil fuels.

Washington post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-of-interview-with-japanese-prime-minister-shinzo-abe/2013/02/20/e7518d54-7b1c-11e2-82e8-61a46c2cde3d_story.html
China, teaching patriotism is also teaching anti-Japanese sentiment. In other words, their education policy of teaching patriotism has become even more pronounced as they started the reform and opening policy.

while Japan is also gaining profit through our investments in China, China is also enjoying an increase in jobs of 10 million or so as a result of investments being made by Japan in China. Obviously when there is greater risk, Japan’s investment will start to drop sharply, and I believe it would be important for them to realize that.

Regarding the Senkaku Islands, which is under the valid control of Japan, we need to make them recognize that that current status of Japan’s valid control cannot be changed by coercion or intimidation. Such behavior is going to have an effect on their economic activity at the end of the day, because it will lead to losing the confidence of the international community which will result in less investments in China. I believe it is fully possible to have China to change their policy once they gain that recognition.

Please refer to this video and tell whole story about Japan invasion in china
http://youtu.be/rwNiZjj48JA    (producted by NHK Japan)

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Beacon indicator

有誰能啟動這個開關,

比較2012及2013 S&P500元月至今的趨勢
2013比較弱, 不似2012強勁. 趨勢往上. 在投資學理上是入市的憑藉. 但也
只能在起伏上下間, 見機進出,

USD 轉趨強, Gold 往1400走低 (as of Feb 20 @1562)顯然日元長期來看走
昇值趨向不變. 最新報告曰本進口比出口成本來得多, 消費信心, 工資到有
改善但物价也上昇不少, 所以ABE這個餅老陌姓吃不到

在整個投資市場
Commodity 的走勢又背離股市, 市場資金都往股市而不看好commodity市場
這太投機了, 股市看似不跌 (大型股巳先行回檔撑指數), 股市却甚少
Supprise, 所以2014, 2015只能拼實實在在的真成長 (上市各行業都獲利成長). 不知
各國政府又能提出新的振興政策可為市場造市或投機者所用

股价循環週期, 巳呈現高檔回整時刻. 有時到覺得,2013是另一波高点.
2014,2015是一個長空格局, 指數也許跌不多. 但作多很吃力





GSG<MA21



Sunday, February 17, 2013

似曾相识的感觉 déjà vu


頭部与底部的結構
非一日而成
但依然有跡可尋

源不斷的資金自Bond market 流向股市, 而法人不斷釋出股市籌碼, 大股東也重新
站在賣方
股市2月份高擋整理, 一時下不來. 唯量是間, 价與量背離就是訊号
目前价的MA21之間差距, 不利多方強作多, 拉高也是2011年10月起漲後#5波, 多方
陷井. 
RSI, Momentum沒反轉前不作空
Volume 股价高擋但volume 平穩, 或許要USA10 year note 殖利率> 2.60以上
才會使股市出量


Comparing the 10 year note
股市与commodity

Remarks: Bearish signs

Nasdag 12 years High (above 3117)
Tech vis SP500 dip bottom
Vix at bottom and strong support 12.46
bearish trends of LQD
Gold dumping lower
$NAUD over 150
Euro market : Span and Italy index below MA50
FXY @ 104.79 as of Feb 15 (there is merely 5% to 100)
SPXA50R and 200R both at high level




Tuesday, February 05, 2013

戲台上耍火把


不要把戲台也燒了

ABE 的夢如果不願醒

ABE 的曰元貶值及通澎政策正在影响投資市場
第一個公開表態是
日本最大退休基金, 將在四,五月間作出減少日本國內債券的持有
而轉向投資國外股市或配置其它資產, 明年年初就會有動作

Feb 一開始日本國債殖利率上升, 呼應通澎在末來的趨勢,  GPIF這個動作
對其他持有國債的機構(外國)無礙是指出一個方向, 如果日元再貶>100,
Gold spot (alternative currency )上不來. 到時大家一起賣曰元(Japan goverment Bond)就會有志一同了


2013 的 Interest Rate 各國都會調高, 這可能是2013資本投資市場要思考的重点
USA 最近國債殖利率也有往上的趨向, 雖然Yields curve還在合理型態


Japan Pension Fund Has Too Many Bonds on Abe Plan


GPIF, one of the biggest buyers of Japanese government bonds, held 69.3 trillion yen, or 64 percent of total assets, in domestic debt at the end of September, according to its latest quarterly financial statement. That compares with 12 trillion yen, or 11 percent, in Japanese stocks; 9.6 trillion yen, or 9 percent, in foreign bonds; and 12.6 trillion yen, or 12 percent, in overseas stocks.


Japan Government Bond Yields

10Y:
  • Current0.79
  • 1M Ago0.83
  • 1Y Ago0.95
2Y5Y10Y30Y-1.000.001.002.00
0.79
0.83
0.95
NameYield1 Day1 Month1 YearTime
JGB 2 Year Yield0.06%0-4-804:42:06
JGB 5 Year Yield0.16%-1-5-1700:59:01
JGB 10 Year Yield0.79%-1-3-1600:59:41
JGB 30 Year Yield2.00%-10+1100:59:50


Change shown in basis points

Bank Of Japan Rates

RateCurrent1 Year PriorRateCurrent1 Year Prior
Target Rate0.100.10JPY LIBOR 1-Month0.130.14
Bank of Japan Assets: Total (Billions of JPY)159,790.30136,906.50JPY LIBOR 3-Month0.170.20
Avoiding your Japan currency depreciation, please refer to my blog dated

SUNDAY, JANUARY 13, 2013

2013 fishing tackle 1



Sunday, February 03, 2013

不知你怎樣看



專家怎樣看股市?, 市場又怎樣看股市

專家 (債券基金)
HYG, LQD ( 高風險及投資級)債券一向是股市風向球, 有領頭及逆向
投資特点, 現在HYG及LQD与SPX之間均有10%乖離到一年來新高, 而且
2013 年各國基本利率都有調高可能, 衝擊債市. 股市如偏高尤其來到
波段高点也會受影响視為利空. 得小心

市場
上週 LIpper 公佈 2013 元月一開始, 有200億資金轉入股市
Equity mutual fund net inflows hit a four-week total of $20.7 billion, the largest recorded since April 12, 2000.
January marked the first time in 11 months that deposits into domestic equity funds exceeded withdrawals
American Association of Individual Investors, for example, notes that bullish sentiment – the expectation that stock prices will rise over the next six months – is above its historical average, as it has been for nearly three months now.
散户方才入場

Furthermore
as of Feb 8
with mutual funds and ETFs together reporting $6.1 billion of fresh inflows in the week ended February 6.
AS 0f Feb 8
Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest noted this week that corporate insiders are cashing out, a negative sign




Sunny and happy biking
Wayne and Vivian
祝大家
農曆新年
健康.  快樂